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The cost of breast cancer to the UK economy could rise by almost a third to £4.2bn in the next 25 years, according to new analysis by Breast Cancer Now.
The charity warned that the UK faces “dire consequences” unless action is taken to give “everyone an equal chance of the best diagnosis, treatment and care”.
Breast cancer is already costing the UK economy between £3.2bn and £3.5bn according to the study by the charity and the think tank Demos.
The estimated figures include the costs to the NHS of diagnosing and treating the disease, as well as the cost to the economy in lost productivity when patients or their informal carers can not return to work.
The report suggests the total could rise by 31 per cent to £4.2bn by 2050 if no action is taken.
Why are costs rising?
The reason for the increase in costs is two-fold, the report states. The most important change is that the incidence of breast cancer – already one of the most common cancers in the UK – was higher in 2022 than had been forecast.
Using Cancer Research UK Projections data, the original model forecast cancer incidence for 2022 in England as 49,048. The actual number of diagnoses in 2022 ended up being 50,977, which represents a 4 per cent increase on the forecast figure.
This is because during the height of the pandemic the screening programme was paused, resulting in fewer diagnoses being made. When diagnostics services were back up and running again, there was a large number of delayed diagnoses that experts can now see in the 2022 data. The disease causes around 11,000 deaths every year.
The second reason is that some of these delayed diagnoses were catching breast cancer in later stages than the model had previously forecast, leading to poorer survival rates and higher costs as a result of higher additional deaths. This is because those people diagnosed in 2022 were more likely to have been living with undiagnosed breast cancer during the pandemic, the report states.
“This has been the subject of several research studies and is a recognised result of the pandemic across many different cancers. For example, Stage 1 figures were 2 per cent lower than expected whilst Stages 2, 3, and 4 were each 3-4 per cent higher.
“According to NHS cancer survival data, when breast cancer is picked up at Stage 1, 98 per cent of people survive for 5 years or more. When it’s picked up at Stage 4, that drops to only 27 per cent.”
There was also a notable increase in breast cancers recorded as “Stage Unknown” at diagnosis. In England these diagnoses are 15 per cent higher than previously forecast and overall, across the four UK nations, are 23 per cent higher than forecast. “Stage Unknown” diagnoses usual sit between Stage 3 and Stage 4, so are at a much later stage with an associated impact on costs.
Screening rates differ across the UK
England and Wales face a greater uphill struggle to reach the UK’s 80 per cent screening target – the latest data available show England has a screening uptake of 70 per cent and Wales 69.5 per cent, both notably lower than the uptake in either Scotland (75.9 per cent) or Northern Ireland (74 per cent).
According to the analysis, boosting screening uptake to 80 per cent could generate up to £185m in savings in 2025 by helping to detect cases earlier and when treatment is more likely to be successful. Anyone registered with a GP as female will be automatically invited for breast screening every three years between the age of 50 and 71.
Latest statistics show that 70 per cent of women took up their invitation in England in 2023/24, an increase of 5.4 percentage points from the previous year.
Taking action to tackle health inequalities could potentially save thousands of lives a year. The analysis estimates that addressing disparities in breast cancer diagnosis could save 2,000 lives a year in ethnic minority communities and 3,200 lives a year in the most deprived areas, while saving up to £180m and £389m respectively for the economy.
Claire Rowney, chief executive of Breast Cancer Now, said: “We’re calling on governments and policymakers across the UK to work with Breast Cancer Now and our supporters to urgently implement measures we know will improve the lives of those impacted by breast cancer – including tackling low breast screening uptake rates and reducing health inequalities. Measures that will also bring about much-needed cost savings to the NHS and UK economy.”
How AI diagnostics could drive further improvements
Although the evidence for the extent to which Aritifical Intelligence capabilities can improve cancer detection rates is “admittedly patchy”, the authors state there are “early signs” that it can improve screening uptake. They point to studies in Germany and Sweden that show a modest improvement in early-stage detection rates and a reduction in false negatives when AI is used as part of the diagnosis toolkit.
Experts are hopeful hopeful the EDITH trial (Early Detection using Information Technology in Health) will provide evidence of the impact of using AI in detection in a UK context. This trial was announced in February 2025 and will see 700,000 women around the UK, in 30 sites, taking part.
‘I was diagnosed with breast cancer at the age of 34’
Danielle Blakesley, 38, from Ilminster, was diagnosed with breast cancer in January 2022 aged 34.
The mother of two had a mastectomy, chemotherapy, radiotherapy and is currently taking tamoxifen to help reduce the risk of the cancer returning, but has been unable to return to work due to the long-term side effects of treatment.
She said: “I’ve been grieving who I once was before my diagnosis, able to be a part of so many things. I didn’t realise how intense treatment would be. After the third round of chemotherapy I didn’t want to be here. I didn’t see how my body was going to get through it. I’ve had side effects like nerve damage to my feet and joint pain and issues.
“Even now I struggle when I try to do normal things. Just keeping up with my boys can take its toll. I get short of breath when I try to exercise. I was keen to go back to a job that I loved after treatment, but I haven’t been able to due to my fatigue, joint pain and limited mobility.
“My emotional and mental health has changed dramatically since treatment. I’m trying to live my life but I just have no focus, spark or confidence.”
‘Huge challenges’ ahead
Rowney said the report “sets out loud and clear the huge challenges in tackling breast cancer and the dire consequences we’ll face” unless urgent action is taken.
“Great strides have been made in tackling breast cancer over past decades, but it still devastates thousands of lives in the UK each day – with people facing long anxious waits for a diagnosis or vital lifesaving treatment, or being denied the life-extending drugs they need,” she added.
Lucy Bush, director of research and participation at Demos, which has been working with Breast Cancer Now since 2023 to model the impact of breast cancer, said: “In the context of the NHS 10 year plan for health announcing a shift ‘from disease cure to disease prevention’ this paper comes at a timely juncture. It helps draw attention to the massive opportunity we have to reduce the impact of this devastating disease on our country.
“Our work sheds a particular light on the difference that could be made by focusing on improving outcomes for ethnic minority and low-income groups. The disparity we see in the survival rates between different demographic groups is simply unacceptable and the uplift in wellbeing savings demonstrates what the ultimate prize would be – a reduction in the suffering and early deaths of thousands of people.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said “This Government is committed to improving the entire cancer journey for patients, from diagnosis all the way through to living with – and beyond – cancer, as we deliver our 10 Year Health Plan.
“We are also bringing care closer to home by opening more community diagnostic centres and new neighbourhood health services across the country and the National Cancer Plan will set out how we will put the NHS back at the forefront of global cancer care.
“We are also working to stamp out this country’s stark health inequalities – quality of care should never be determined by where you live.”
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